Up, up, and away!

Brian Walker, The Capital Press,
December 24, 1999

Mention the agriculture crisis to a nurseryman and chances are you'll get a blank stare in return.

The nursery industry is one of the few segments of agriculture that isn't struggling with problems such as low commodity prices and oversupply.

Plants are a luxury item and as long as the domestic economy and construction activity continue to sizzle, growers and retailers will have little trouble pushing their greens.

"The industry is doing well and will continue to do well for at least the next five years because the population keeps growing," said Jack Wick, regulatory consultant with the California Association of Nurserymen. "People need lawns and everything we sell.
Rocket-like nursery sales are especially evident in Oregon, where the amount tallied by wholesale products has increased every year this decade. The trend could date back even further, but 1990 was the first year the state's statistics service surveyed the nursery industry.

"When you think about everything that's happening in agriculture, that's a phenomenal growth record," said Clayton Hannon, executive director of the Oregon Association of Nurserymen.

Oregon sales top ag industry
Sales totaled a record $532 million in 1998, making nursery and greenhouse products the states' top-selling commodity for the fifth consecutive year. Ornamentals make up the bulk of the state's nursery crop, and roughly 70 percent of the stock is exported to other states.

"The demand for Oregon products is extremely strong because of the quality of material," Hannon said. "People are also becoming more aware of what plant material means to the environment.

"Sales for 1999 may not increase 8 percent like they did in 1998, but they'll continue to climb and the early indication is that sales in 2000 will be even better."

California's industry
California's industry, which features a broader range of products than those of Northwest states, had a small decline in wholesale sales from 1997 to 1998, but Wick said it continues to thrive. California in 1998 had $2.4 billion in sales, which includes cut flowers, flower seeds, Christmas trees, roses, bedding plants and ornamentals.

"We had a drop in some items like cut flowers, Christmas trees and fruit trees and an increase in others like deciduous ornamentals, bedding plants and rose plants," Wick said. "Cut flowers dropped the most because of so much competition from Bolivia, Israel and Holland."

Still, in the last 10 years, nursery has moved up from sixth to third in sales in California behind milk/cream and grapes respectively.

Washington's industry
In Washington, which features a retail-oriented industry, a comprehensive statewide nursery survey, commissioned by Washington State University, was completed for the first time last year, looking at the 1996-97 season. Wholesale operations in that state fetched nearly $282 million, which is 13 percent higher than estimates published by the statistics service. The $282 million figure made nursery products No. 8 in sales in Washington.

Even in Idaho, where potatoes, cattle and dairy are dominant, nursery sales are increasing and totaled $55.5 million in 1997. Heavy construction activity in Boise and Post Falls/Coeur d'Alene is keeping the state's nursery growers happy.

More nursery shows
Another indication the nursery industry is peaking is the number of attendees and exhibitors at the region's producer- and consumer-oriented shows. Duane Kelly, chairman of the Northwest and San Francisco Flower and Garden Shows, expects a record 90,000 visitors to attend his Seattle show in February. More than 100 companies are on the waiting list to exhibit.

"At $14.50, it's not an inexpensive event to attend," Kelly said. "People will only pay that kind of money if they're seriously into gardening."

Both OAN shows also drew record attendance in Portland this year. The Yard, Garden and Patio Show, a consumer gardening show held in February, had 40,396. The producer-oriented Farwest Show held in August drew 15,206.

The Baby Boom generation has largely embraced gardening

The popularity of the nursery industry is spilling over. Some farmers of commodities such as berries are converting their farms to nursery. The number of nursery operations in Oregon, for instance, increased from 2,040 in 1997 to 2,082 in 1998.

And new events and exhibits are being established. The Washington Nursery and Landscape Association is selling booth space for its first Emerald Expo at Seattle's Stadium Exhibition Center.

"One of the factors in setting up the show was the popularity of the Farwest Show," said Scott Pringle, a Snohomish, Wash., nurseryman and the show's planning committee chairman. "We've talked to a lot of people in this market that don't go down to that show because there's a waiting list."

Possible downturn
Some in the industry suspect nursery sales will take a downturn once the American economy takes its inevitable dip, and a few Northwest nurseries are exploring overseas markets. Plant exports to other countries have been limited because of quarantine and transportation barriers and the strong American market.

"There is a future in international trade for Oregon nurseries once there's a workable quarantine program set up," Hannon said. "If the national marketplace slows down or if our Southeast competitors ever find an answer to produce the same quality of material as in Oregon, that's going to be a disadvantage for Oregon growers because they're closer to the markets."

But others, like Kelly, feels even a downturn in the American economy won't drag the nursery industry with it. "The Baby Boom generation is largely embraced to gardening," Kelly said. "People live and work at a fast pace these days and that creates a need to get away from that. I don't see the pace of life slowing down. The last recession slowed down plant sales some, but not that much."

The attention the industry is getting from struggling farmers may cause oversupply fears for some, but not for Kelly and Salem nurseryman Mark Krautmann.

"Landscapers are backed up six to nine months," Kelly said. "There's not enough tradespeople to do the work. People are actually short on supply."

Although nurserymen are challenged with predicting future trends, the diversity of plants and how they're produced protects most nurseries from oversupply, Krautmann said. "The ornamental market is far more diverse than most commodity markets. There's opportunity to add value, especially with grafted plants. You can sell plants at all different ages and in a plastic container or a fancy cedar tub. There's also flexibility with harvest."